Ranking each NHL team's current and future goaltending outlook, Part 2: The mushy middle (2024)

By Scott Wheeler, Jesse Granger and Sean McIndoe

Welcome back to our attempt to rank the goaltending outlook of all 32 NHL teams. The basic question we’re trying to answer: How good should each team feel about their goaltending, both for right now and looking into the future?

On Monday, we introduced the project and counted down the bottom 10. If you missed that post, you can find it here.

A cut-and-paste reminder on how this works:

We’ve given each of the 32 teams a ranking in three categories:

Current goaltending: How good is their goaltending at the NHL level right now? How good does it project to be in the near term, which we define as the next three years? This section includes the two goalies who are expected to start the 2024-25 season, as well as anyone else in the system who can be projected to play games. The Athletic’s goaltending expert, Jesse Granger, handled this section.

Future prospects: This section ranks each team’s goaltenders in the system who’ve yet to establish themselves as full-time NHLers, with a focus on ceiling and upside. Prospect expert Scott Wheeler weighs in here.

Note that in theory, there can be some overlap between the first two sections. Yaroslav Askarov is a prospect, but will almost certainly spend meaningful time in the NHL over the next three years. Jake Oettinger is the Stars’ starter now, and at just 25 years old he’s also their future. That’s OK, because Jesse and Scott are looking at those players from two different perspectives: How good they are now (Jesse), how good they can be and for how long at their eventual peak (Scott).

Cap and contracts: Who makes what, and for how many years? Ideally, a team will have the security of having their good goaltenders locked in at a reasonable price and term. In a hard-cap league, a good player making too much for too long may be a negative asset, so contracts matter. There’s going to be some guesswork here, as some key players need new deals. For example, Igor Shesterkin hasn’t signed an extension with the Rangers yet, but that doesn’t mean we just assume that he will walk as a UFA in 2025. The key is that this section is about getting value from good players for as long as possible, not simply having the lowest cap hit you can. Sean McIndoe handles this section, with cap info from PuckPedia.

For each category, teams were ranked from 1 to 32. Those scores were then weighted, with “current goaltending” getting a 1.0 weight, while “future prospects” was given 0.75 to recognize the difficulty in peering too far into the future. “Cap and contracts” was weighted at 0.5; it’s important, but history shows us that there are ways to wiggle out of bad deals, although it may be painful.

Today, we’re counting down the mushy middle on our way to Friday’s top 10.

22. New York Islanders

Current: 8

Granger: A year ago Ilya Sorokin was among the elite group that includes Shesterkin, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Connor Hellebuyck and Juuse Saros, but it was a rough 2023-24 season for the 28-year-old Russian. Sorokin put up the worst statistics of his career, and eventually lost the net to backup Semyon Varlamov. Now, part of that equation is the Islanders have one of the best backups in the league, but at 36 that may not last much longer for Varlamov. Even after a down year, I still have confidence in Sorokin moving forward.

Future: 28

Wheeler: Jakub Skarek will turn 25 in November and is what he is after parts of five seasons of sub-.900 play in the AHL. The towering Marcus Gidlof was my third-ranked goalie in 2024 even though he was the 19th picked, and has some upside to build into. He’s a B-grade prospect. Henrik Tikkanen is also gigantic and showed some promise in the AHL last year. Dmitri Gamzin is 21 and unsigned but is one of the better young goalies in Russia and should get more looks in the KHL with CSKA next year. I’m not sure whether any of those three guys will put it all together but each has some unique qualities. (I don’t see anything in Tristan Lennox, their other goalie prospect.)

Cap: 26

McIndoe: I admit I’m not completely sure what to do here. At $8.25 million, Sorokin was just about the highest-paid backup of all time in last year’s playoffs. Of course, he’s far more likely to be a Vezina candidate than lose his job for the long term. I think. Patrick Roy can be weird, is what I’m saying. Either way, the Islanders have $11 million a year committed to their duo through 2027, which is pricey if they can get Sorokin back to his top form and disastrous if they can’t.

Bottom line: If you want to highlight the danger — and maybe futility — of projecting goaltending, the Islanders are a good lesson on how much an outlook can change in just a year. And of course, it’s possible this ranking feels like an overreaction a season from now.

21. Minnesota Wild

Current: 29

Granger: With -16.72 GSAx last season the duo of Filip Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury finished second-to-last in the NHL. Gustavsson’s surprising form from 2022-23 completely evaporated, and at 39 Fleury is no longer the goalie he once was. The question for the immediate future is how soon will top prospect Jesper Wallstedt be ready to take over the NHL job? He’s only 21, but if he makes his mark on the NHL this season the Wild have the potential to soar up this list.

Future: 4

Wheeler: The Wild’s future ranking is driven by Wallstedt, who has a case as the top goalie prospect in the game right now and possesses starter upside. Samuel Hlavaj looks like organizational depth, personally, but I’m looking forward to watching him in the AHL/ECHL next season. And Chase Wutzke is a decent WHL goalie and a fine fifth-round pick. Wallstedt could be a difference-maker, though.

Cap: 18

McIndoe: Fleury is on his last legs. But his $2.5 million deal isn’t awful and has just one year left, while Gustavsson has two years at $3.75 million per, which seemed like value last year and no longer does. The good news for Bill Guerin is that the future looks bright, and the dockets will be cleared by then.

Bottom line: No pressure, Jesper.

OK, a quick timeout to give you fair warning: The next six teams were all jammed up with nearly identical overall scores, so feel free to reorder them as you see fit — it’s close enough that we won’t argue with you.

20. Winnipeg Jets

Current: 4

Granger: No goalie has performed at a high level more consistently over the last seven years than Hellebuyck. His 118.75 goals saved above expected since his first full season in the NHL (2016-17) lead all goalies and there isn’t a close second. He isn’t the most athletic or flexible goalie, which means his ceiling may not be quite as high as some of the other superstar netminders, but his intelligent, methodical style leaves little to shoot at and gives him an incredibly high floor. The only thing holding Hellebuyck back at this point is his lack of an exceptional playoff run.

Future: 31

Wheeler: The Jets have just two goalie prospects, really. I’ve always very much enjoyed watching Thomas Milic play. He’s small but he’s the ultimate competitor, sticks with plays and seems to make a lot of second and third saves because of his battle level. He played a lot of games between the ECHL and AHL last year and won a lot of them, and I think that’ll be good for him. I think he’ll play NHL games someday, even if that’s as a No. 3. Domenic DiVincentiis has had some real highs and real lows in viewings of mine but I really soured on him last year after seeing him look quite shaky across multiple starts. I think he lost some confidence.

Cap: 25

McIndoe: Remember, the extension that Hellebuyck signed a year ago only kicks in this season. If you’re going to commit $8.5 million per year through a goalie’s age-38 season, you’d better get a Vezina-caliber performance. The Jets got exactly that last year. But as good as Hellebuyck is, there are all sorts of warning lights blinking on this dashboard for where this could go.

Bottom line: This ranking will raise a few eyebrows for a team with the reigning Vezina winner, and we had some internal arguments about it. As Jesse kept saying, aren’t there teams ranked ahead of them who’d trade their current situation for Winnipeg’s in a heartbeat? Maybe, but a massive contract and a lack of prospects combine to create concern for the future, and that’s part of what we’re trying to measure here.

19. St. Louis Blues

Current: 14

Granger: After a two-year slump, Jordan Binnington bounced back in a major way last season. His 29.74 GSAx were second in the NHL behind only Hellebuyck, and he probably should’ve been a Vezina finalist. Behind him, Joel Hofer had an excellent rookie season and proved he was ready to take the next step after multiple big years in the AHL. With Binnington, 31, back on track, and Hofer, 23, looking more and more like the goalie of the future, the Blues are in good shape in net.

Future: 22

Wheeler: Hofer has now established himself as an NHL goalie for my money and Vadim Zherenko looks like he’s got a chance to be one and is a No. 3 at minimum. Colten Ellis was really good at both the AHL and ECHL levels last year and has this season — the last on his ELC — to prove he can be organizational depth as a 3/4 as well. But the Blues’ pool of goalie prospects is getting older. The youngest of their four, Will Cranley, will turn 23 next season and struggled in the ECHL last year.

Cap: 17

McIndoe: This one comes down to how much you believe in Binnington, who has three years left at $6 million a pop. If you think last year means he’s back as a top-tier starter, you can justify the deal. If you’re still a skeptic, this one feels very dicey. At least the depth is all cheap.

Bottom line: Please don’t throw a water bottle at us.

18. Detroit Red Wings

Current: 32

Granger: The Red Wings enter 2024-25 with four different goalies with extensive NHL experience. Cam Talbot is coming off a strong statistical season, but he did it behind a staunch Kings defense that tends to inflate goaltending numbers (just ask Ottawa how signing Joonas Korpisalo went). Detroit has some incredibly exciting goalie prospects, but the current situation doesn’t inspire that same excitement.

Future: 1

Wheeler: The Red Wings are the only team in the league with two goalies I believe are both top-10 goalie prospects in the sport. They’re also two very different goalies, with Sebastian Cossa’s size, fire, athleticism and raw potential contrasted against Trey Augustine’s stoic, cerebral calm and control. I’d be surprised if both don’t become 1A/1B types and the Red Wings don’t eventually have a tough decision to make on whether or not to turn over the net to two young goalies. Colgate’s Carter Gylander and 2024 fourth-rounder Landon Miller could give them some organizational depth as well. (I don’t see the recently acquired Gage Alexander as much.)

Cap: 11

McIndoe: The Wings have four veterans under contract for a total of $8.8 million this year, although a chunk of that will be buried in the AHL. Only Talbot is signed past this coming season; his $2.5 million deal is for two years, but otherwise, the plan seems to be to clear the deck and reassess in a year, which is probably smart. One question for then will be whether the team wants to recommit to Ville Husso, who’s been just OK on a $4.75 million AAV deal that expires next summer.

Bottom line: You have to love a team covering both ends of the current/future spectrum. For a franchise undergoing an ultra-patient rebuild, the future is probably still the priority, but the current situation will make a playoff run tougher than it probably should be unless one of those veterans steps up.

17. Utah Hockey Club

Current: 22

Granger: The Coyotes had surprise breakout performances by goalies in each of the last two seasons. In 2022-23 it was Karel Vejmelka, who crashed back to earth with a .897 save percentage last season. In 2023-24 it was Connor Ingram, who will have an opportunity to prove it wasn’t a fluke with a much more talented team in front of him in Utah this upcoming season.

Future: 19

Wheeler: Michael Hrabal needs to cut down on the mistakes in his game but has big potential to match his big size. Melker Thelin has followed a nice trajectory and is the likely starter for Sweden at this year’s world juniors and is on a path to getting signed. Anson Thornton had a tough rookie season at the pro level and is probably just farm system depth but has two years left on his ELC to prove otherwise. And while Carsen Musser is a bit of a long shot, he took a positive step with USHL Madison last year and will have four years at Colorado College to prove himself.

Cap: 3

McIndoe: At just $1.95 million per for two more seasons, Ingram has the potential to be a fantastic value if he can stay close to last year’s level. Otherwise, it’s a position without major commitments and plenty of freedom to acquire if they need to down the road.

Bottom line: After surprising us at the position for a few years now, the former Coyotes get to see what they have when playing behind an actual blue line.

16. Edmonton Oilers

Current: 18

Granger: Stuart Skinner is often the target of criticism and has deserved some of it, but he’s also already won 72 regular season games and 19 playoff games in only two full NHL seasons. He has been fortunate to play behind the best offense on the planet in that span, but he’s proven he can handle a starter’s workload and give his team a chance to win on most nights. Behind Skinner is where it gets dicey for Edmonton. Calvin Pickard started 20 games last season, and it was his first time playing more than 12 NHL games since 2016-17.

Future: 21

Wheeler: The Oilers’ future ranking is held up by the 25-year-old Skinner, primarily, but they do have some depth. Olivier Rodrigue, 24, is exiting prospecthood but was excellent in Bakersfield last year and looks like a No. 3 who should start to get NHL games now. Behind him, the Oilers might have also been sly to sign WHL-to-USports standout Connor Ungar. They drafted Eemil Vinni (who I view as a B-minus prospect and considered a mid-round pick) in the second round of the 2024 draft as well. Those three all have varying degrees of promise and Samuel Jonsson is huge but has a lot to prove. (I don’t see anything in 2023 sixth-rounder Nathaniel Day, who I’d rank fifth out of those goalies.)

Cap: 8

McIndoe: I’ll admit that I wasn’t completely sure what to do with buyouts until I got to the Oilers, who’ll have Jack Campbell on the books for six long years. I think that has to count against them since it’s a goaltending-related cap cost, not to mention a reminder of a flawed evaluation process that led to a significant mistake. That said, Skinner is a great value starter for two more years, and Pickard is at least cheap as a backup. They’re in decent shape even with Campbell factored in; drop the buyout from the calculations and they move up a couple of spots further.

Bottom line: Skinner went from starter to benched to hero in about two weeks last spring. Have we mentioned that goaltending can be volatile?

15. Colorado Avalanche

Current: 24

Granger: The Avalanche have a habit of making life easy on their goaltenders, and that was the case again this season. Alexandar Georgiev led all goalies with 38 wins despite ranking 49th in save percentage (.897) and 62nd in GSAx (-0.21). What bumps Colorado up to 24th on this list is my excitement for the 24-year-old Finn, Justus Annunen. He was exceptional (.928 save percentage and 13.37 GSAx) in limited action last year. It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s Colorado’s No. 1 at some point over the next three seasons.

Future: 12

Wheeler: The Avalanche used three of their nine picks in the 2024 draft on goalies, taking my top-ranked goalie in the class in 21-year-old KHL playoff MVP Ilya Nabokov as well as Chicago Steel playoff standout Louka Cloutier and Omsk netminder Ivan Yunin. That, plus the acquisition of Kevin Mandolese from Ottawa (who is probably more of a 3/4), solidified a pool that has Annunen knocking on the NHL’s door and Trent Miner as AHL depth.

Cap: 9

McIndoe: Georgiev isn’t cheap at $3.4 million, but that’s fine for one more year of a league-average starter. The question is what comes after this season, as Georgiev’s deal expires and there’s no guarantee they bring him back. I have to dock them a few points just for the uncertainty, but having flexibility is obviously better than being locked into bad deals, especially for a contender.

Bottom line: They’re just OK for now but in decent shape going forward. Given where the rest of the roster is, they’d probably prefer to swap those two situations, but here we are.

14. Tampa Bay Lightning

Current: 2

Granger: I’m willing to forgive a down season for the Big Cat coming off back surgery, tossed in midseason with no runway. Andrei Vasilevskiy showed signs of returning to his old self down the stretch and into the playoffs. In a world where goalies keep getting bigger, Vasilevskiy still possesses a unique combination of size, speed and athleticism that makes him nearly unbeatable when he’s on his game. He’s already spent so much time at the top of the mountain, it feels like he should be much older than 29, but the two-time Cup winner should still have plenty of elite play left in the tank.

Future: 30

Wheeler: Hugo Alnefelt once showed promise as a potential 2/3 but he’s now 23 and I don’t expect him to become more than a 3/4 now. Harrison Meneghin was one of the better goalies in the WHL last year though and warranted his seventh-round selection as an overager in the 2024 draft, even if his ceiling is probably also that of a 3/4.

Cap: 23

McIndoe: It’s Vasilevskiy or bust in Tampa, as he’s still got four years left at $9.5 million. Last year’s combination of heath and iffy numbers worries me, although Jesse seems to be on board. I’ll trust him, but there really isn’t any scenario where there’s much value here, since they’re locked into paying top dollar. And the downside, unlikely as it may be, is ugly.

Bottom line: The goaltending situation in Tampa has been very good for years, but age and injury mean they could be headed toward a problem. For now, they’re in the middle of those two worlds, banking on a return to Vezina form from Vasilevskiy.

13. Ottawa Senators

Current: 10

Granger: The Senators went from having the worst team save percentage in the NHL last season, to acquiring a Vezina winner coming off another brilliant season in Linus Ullmark. I’m more bullish on his chances of replicating that success in Ottawa than most, so I’m projecting the Senators to be good in net for the next few years. While there isn’t a clear star prospect waiting in the wings, I love the potential upside of the 23-year-old behemoth, Mads Sogaard.

Future: 22

Wheeler: In the athletic and mobile Leevi Merilainen and the big Sogaard, the Sens have two goalie prospects who’ve already played NHL games. They’ve each shown real upside in stretches (though they both need to find more consistency) as well. Kevin Reidler was better than his .902 save percentage in Dubuque indicated last season and has some size-talent upside as a 6-foot-6 goalie (I’m looking forward to tracking him at Nebraska-Omaha next season). And then there’s Khazakhstan’s Vladimir Nikitin, who is a long shot and a lottery ball but will play in the world juniors in Ottawa this year and get to test himself on a big stage.

Cap: 20

McIndoe: Ullmark has just one year left, and unlike other expiring contracts for clear-cut starters around the league, it feels like there’s genuine reason to wonder if an extension will happen. The threat of a Shiny New Toy mistake also looms large here, which clouds the picture, as does some dead money on Joonas Korpisalo and another unknown in Forsberg.

Bottom line: Without any NHL goaltending signed through next year, there are a ton of questions here. But the situation is still unquestionably better than it was a few months ago, even if they only get a single season out of Ullmark. If they can extend him on something bordering on reasonable, they could be in great shape.

12. Vegas Golden Knights

Current: 17

Granger: When Adin Hill is healthy and on top of his game, he’s among the hardest to beat in the league. He’s a gigantic goalie who moves well for his size and uses great positioning on shots through traffic. The problem is that he hasn’t been healthy or at the top of his game nearly enough over his seven-year NHL career, which makes him tough to rank. Considering he and newly signed Ilya Samsonov are both on expiring contracts, the future in net for Vegas is cloudy.

Future: 16

Wheeler: The acquisition of Akira Schmid (who is still just 24 despite having played in the NHL the last three years because of his bizarre USHL-to-NHL/AHL jump) bides some time for the Golden Knights’ quartet of decent prospects. I’m highest on smallish Swede Carl Lindbom, who has been excellent for years now and I’m looking forward to watching in the AHL next year, but Belarusian Pavel Moysevich has the size and was a worthy mid-round pick and ranked on my 2024 overagers list and Cameron Whitehead has some believers and was good at Northeastern as a freshman last year. (Jesper Vikman looks like AHL/ECHL depth to me.)

Cap: 12

McIndoe: Hill and Samsonov cost a combined $6.7 million and are both UFAs after next year. The good news is that Schmid still has two years left on his ELC, so he could be a fantastic value if he hits. There’s also Robin Lehner’s $5 million still sitting on LTIR, but only for one more year. Basically, the Golden Knights have a ton of uncertainty, which is still better than being locked into bad deals, but worse than some of their fellow contenders who have a clear long-term plan.

Bottom line: The numbers worked out the way they did, but this ranking feels generous. Who are we kidding, they’ll find a way to trade for 1999 Dominik Hasek before the season starts.

11. Anaheim Ducks

Current: 15

Granger: John Gibson has already started 466 games for the Ducks, and he just turned 31. He’s been one of the busiest goalies in the league since his rookie season (2015-16), but the Gibson era could be nearing its end in Anaheim. The three-time All-Star’s stats have dipped considerably playing behind a struggling team. I still think Gibson has some good hockey left if given the right opportunity, but rookie Lukáš Dostál showed he’s ready for a bigger role. He was the only goalie 23 or younger to play in more than 30 games last year, and he outplayed Gibson in those 44 appearances.

Future: 8

Wheeler: The Ducks have a bit of quantity and quality going for them. Dostál has established himself as an NHL netminder now, both Tomas Suchanek and Calle Clang could challenge for opportunities in the near-to-medium future, and while Damian Clara is a little further away he might have the most upside of that trio behind Dostál. They’ve also now signed sixth-round pick Vyacheslav Buteyets, who is coming over next season and should add to the organizational depth chart.

Cap: 27

McIndoe: Gibson’s deal still somehow has three more seasons to go at $6.4 million, and while Jesse still swears by the guy, that’s just way too much for a 31-year-old who hasn’t hit .905 in five years and counting. The Ducks are young enough to absorb the hit, but Gibson’s contract has limited their trade options with one of the few veterans they still have. Dostál’s ELC ends this year, so there will be a decision to make soon.

Bottom line: Find someone who believes in you the way Jesse believes in John Gibson.

That brings us to our top 10, which will include some familiar faces and a few surprises. See you back here on Friday for the big reveal.

(Top photos of Jesper Wallstedt and Connor Hellebuyck: Sam Hodde / Getty Images and Andrew Bershaw / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)