NHL’s 10 worst contracts, 2024 edition: Jonathan Huberdeau, Darnell Nurse and more (2024)

In the NHL, contracts matter. For better or worse, every player is judged based on the money he makes and whether he’s worth the price.

This piece is about the players that aren’t worth the money — the worst deals in the league. It’s when you ask yourself, “How is this guy making that much?” but in a bad way.

It never feels right to reduce a player to that point though. The human element of inclusion on a list like this is real and ideally, it might provide some motivation to reignite their careers. After all, they were signed to that contract in the first place for a reason and the hope is that each and every player here finds a way to leave this list next year with a resurgent performance.

There are plenty of past examples of players who have done just that and one (Josh Morrissey) even found his way onto the best contracts list this season. That’s the goal. This list is just a snapshot in time and nothing is guaranteed for next year — probability is not destiny. For a league filled with determined athletes who have the fortitude to defy an age curve, inclusion on this list may just be enough to spark a much-needed bounce-back.

While we love to see those comeback stories play out, that still means we have to point out what exactly these players are coming back from that has made their contract undesirable.

According to each player’s projected value over the remainder of their deals, these are the league’s 10 worst contracts.

The goal here is to grade contracts empirically with the same context being applied to each player across the league: How much value does each player bring to the table per year and over the life of the contract. The way that’s measured comes from comparing a player’s Net Rating and the expected salary that comes with it to a player’s current contract.

What players have already done holds no merit, this is about the future value of the deal. Contract clauses and bonus structure are important, but not considered in this assessment. Players on LTIR were not considered.

1. Jonathan Huberdeau

Contract: $10.5M x seven years
Model Value: $4.9M x seven years

Jonathan Huberdeau has the worst contract in hockey. You know it. I know it. He knows it. He’s making franchise forward money for seven more seasons despite scoring like a second-liner in back-to-back seasons. There’s no use belaboring the point further — the question is whether he can do anything to get back on track.

To be worth $10.5 million, Huberdeau needs to carry a Net Rating of plus-16, well above his current projection of plus-six. That’s not an impossible goal — it’s where he was projected to be when he arrived in Calgary — he just needs to be the guy he used to be.

There were some signs of that in the second half of last season where it felt like Huberdeau was finally figuring things out as a Flame. After nearly going all of December without a single point, Huberdeau looked a lot better immediately after with 37 points in 46 games — a 66-point pace. What really fuelled that was Calgary’s power play catching fire led by Huberdeau scoring 8.2 points per 60 with the man advantage. A bit more finish at five-on-five (2.34 goals per 60 compared to 2.85 expected goals per 60) could help things too.

That second half gave Huberdeau a spark of confidence he desperately needed and it showed a path back to point-per-game status. That alone won’t help him live up to his contract completely, but it would be a strong start to getting Huberdeau’s game back to where it needs to be.

It’s no fun seeing a player struggle to live up to big money and Huberdeau is an easy player to root for. He may still end up on this list next season — seven years is still a long time and $10.5 million is a lot of money — but the climb out has to start somewhere.

There have been numerous examples of former elite players reigniting their game and finding a way off this list. Here’s hoping Huberdeau is the next to do it. The NHL is a better place with him electrifying crowds.

2. Chandler Stephenson

Contract: $6.3M x seven years
Model Value: $2.2M x seven years

Fresh off the hopper, the brand new Chandler Stephenson deal earns an immediate top-three debut on the worst contracts list. Not a great sign!

Some folks in the Pacific Northwest might bemoan that judging Stephenson’s new deal before he’s even played a game with Seattle is unfair. That argument usually holds more merit when a player goes to a new situation where he has an opportunity to thrive under differing circ*mstances. I don’t think that’s the case with Stephenson. He’s going from playing with Mark Stone every second Stone is healthy to playing with a lot of players who aren’t half as good as Stone.

While Stephenson’s value was worth $6 million just one year ago, the likelihood of bouncing back to that level without Stone by his side is probably low. To do so for the next seven years — all of which occur in his 30s — feels even lower.

As of right now, Stephenson is an average middle-six center — one who gives a lot of his offense back the other way. There are a lot of red flags in his game that came to the surface last season, all pointing to an onerous contract waiting to be handed out.

The Kraken did just that and I doubt we’ll have to wait very long to see that. Stephenson has a lot to prove to show this isn’t a Day 1 disaster. Showing he’s more than Stone’s linemate and someone who can drive play on his own accord would be a strong start.

3. Tom Wilson

Contract: $6.5M x seven years
Model Value: $2.7M x seven years

Last summer, the Capitals wasted zero time extending Tom Wilson for his age 30-to-37 seasons at a top-line price point. Wilson was certainly that in his prime, a menacing power forward who brought fear to the majority of the league with his ability to score and bully simultaneously.

While Wilson can still bully, his ability to score seriously tanked last season making it difficult to have confidence in his ability to still be a top-six scorer, let alone top line. The model projects him to bounce back to just under 50 points and, to his credit, he was very unlucky last season. But if he’s already well below where he needs to be in Year 1, what does that say about his potential efficacy in Year 7?

It’s not a great sign and the current projection sees Wilson dropping to third-line caliber by Year 3 — with a whole lot of years to go after that. Given his imposing reputation, Wilson will still likely be a worthwhile everyday player for the majority of this deal. But that’ll be far off what he’s being paid to be.

And if the downfall of Milan Lucic is any indication, the whole bullying factor loses a lot of lustre once that player stops being able to hit a team where it actually hurts.

Lucic’s deal, which started when he was 28 not 30, should’ve been a cautionary tale for the Capitals. They did pay less for Wilson (7.4 percent of the cap compared to 8.2 percent), but that discount alone will likely be far from enough unless Wilson sees a serious return to form next season.

If Wilson can get back to being a 50-point player, do so consistently, and keep his intangible edge, he can be worth the money for the next little bit. That can at least make the back half of the deal palatable.

It’s not impossible, it’s just not the likeliest scenario.

4. Colton Parayko

Contract: $6.5M x six years
Model Value: $2.5M x six years

Here’s the thing with Colton Parayko: He’s still very good defensively in a shutdown role and that holds a lot of value. He makes key stops for the Blues and eats tough minutes, both things that the model holds in high regard which gives him a strong Defensive Rating.

What Parayko doesn’t have going for him is something that many underrate when it comes to matchup defensem*n: the other dimension. Shutdown guys don’t need to be Bobby Orr, but they do need to not be one-dimensional — especially at a $6.5 million ticket. For guys playing in a shutdown role, the ability to make sure offense flows the other way is crucial to getting the most out of locking things down defensively. Parayko’s profile is essentially a reverse-Vladimir Tarasenko.

There’s a lot of value in what Parayko brings and there’s something to be said about not being in the best environment to succeed with the Blues too. But what Parayko lacks is what separates him from the true top-pair defensem*n you see on playoff teams — and what puts him well under his current cap hit.

Maybe calling him a $4 million (or less) defenseman is harsh, sure. But the even bigger problem is that he’s 31 and has six years left at his current price tag.

It’s not out of line to think Parayko could play at a $6.25 million level — that calls for a Net Rating of plus-five. But he hasn’t been at that level since 2020 so it’s a lot to ask for now, let alone for the next six seasons.

Maybe Parayko could thrive somewhere else and live up to this deal. But his current situation in St. Louis where he’s expected to be The Guy despite lacking the offensive chops to do so puts him in a very difficult spot. If he doesn’t find an offensive element, this could turn into a Marc-Edouard Vlasic sequel.

5. Damon Severson

Contract: $6.3M x seven years
Model Value: $3.0M x seven years

When the Blue Jackets signed Damon Severson it looked pricey to start, but at the very least he looked like he could at least be worth the price for the first couple of years. His average value over the life of the deal came in at $4.9 million at the time.

One year later and it’s dropped to $3 million over the next seven seasons. It’s never a sure thing how a player fits in a new locale and unfortunately for Columbus, Severson hasn’t been a great one so far. Pairing Severson with someone who can defend might be the best way to get the most out of the remainder of his deal. But the Blue Jackets don’t have a lot of great options on the left side for that role.

Eight years is a long time for any player, especially a defenseman about to enter his 30s. It’s possible Severson bounces back in his second season and cleans things up defensively — enough to look top-pair caliber. But if his first year with the Blue Jackets was a sign of things to come, it doesn’t look pretty for Columbus. His value has dropped to average second-pair level, making $6.25 million tough to justify.

6. Mark Scheifele

Contract: $8.5M x seven years
Model Value: $5.3M x seven years

Offensively, there’s no doubt that Mark Scheifele is worth $8.5 million. He’s still a consistent point-per-game threat that generates more goals and chances for the Jets compared to when he’s on the bench. His projected plus-nine Offensive Rating puts him in the 90th percentile and is enough to make him a bona fide top-line option.

There are levels to being a top-line guy though and Scheifele isn’t on the high end of that. Him being The Guy on the Jets is a big reason the Jets continue to be first-round fodder year after year. He may be strong offensively, but he doesn’t stack up well compared to other team leaders around the league.

The bigger issues though are his age and, as usual, his defensive ability. Scheifele gives a lot back the other way while facing secondary matchups which makes his scoring feel empty calorie. At 31, things are probably not going to get better for Scheifele and the Jets going forward either.

It’s not impossible for a late-career renaissance, but for Scheifele it would take a really big bounce-back to get to a point where he’s worth this deal. He needs to be at a plus-11 Net Rating, a mark he last reached in 2019. Cleaning things up without the puck while remaining just as threatening with it is Scheifele’s best path forward.

7. Sean Couturier

Contract: $7.75M x six years
Model Value: $4.2M x six years

Sean Couturier still has the juice defensively. His plus-three Defensive Rating is up there with some of the league’s best, driven primarily by his earning one of the best relative expected goals against rates of his career last season. Doing that in tough minutes after coming back from serious injury holds a lot of value.

Unfortunately, his offensive game is not where it needs to be anymore to be worthy of his $7.75 million deal for six more seasons. At 31, his value is only expected to drop further with each passing year, from $5.2 million this year to half of that by his final season. For now, Couturier is a fine shutdown second-line center, but that’s not enough for how much he’s being paid.

It’s a real shame for Couturier, who looked like he would have no trouble living up to this deal when he signed it. At the time it looked right on the money. Injuries severely derailed his trajectory to this current point though and the hope is that he can still bounce back after getting back up to speed last season. Some positive shooting percentage regression could help a lot here.

Couturier’s underlying numbers remain sound and he’ll likely continue to be a useful player. But unless his offense picks up, it’ll be hard for him to live up to his price tag for six more years.

8. Seth Jones

Contract: $9.5M x six years
Model Value: $6.1M x six years

Over the last year, I’ve done a lot of fine-tuning with the model in terms of how players are valued. That’s both on ice (better adjustments for teammate and competition quality) and off ice (better reflection of contract value). Both helped make Seth Jones and his deal look a lot more palatable, but he’s still not where the Blackhawks need him to be.

Jones is being paid like a franchise defenseman. The model views him as closer to a decent No. 2 option. The gap between those two things from a financial perspective is very wide, coming in at $3 million this season. To be worth his deal, Jones needs to step up in 2024-25 — and the five years after.

With Jones though, it’s worth noting that there’s a chicken-and-egg scenario at play with his value. Is it low because he’s on the Blackhawks, or are the Blackhawks so poor because Jones is their best defenseman? The answer is a little bit of both and the model does its best to strike a balance between those two ideas, especially after adding stronger adjustments for teammates and competition.

With the Blackhawks adding a lot of reinforcements this summer, it’ll be interesting to see how Jones’ value responds. He has all the tools to be a $9.5 million defenseman and now has more support to work with. It’s time for Jones to prove he’s worth his big-money deal.

9. Darnell Nurse

Contract: $9.3M x six years
Model Value: $5.9M x six years

Darnell Nurse should be thankful that the model doesn’t include playoff data, otherwise he’d be ranked a lot worse than this. He’s getting franchise defenseman money, was closer to a No. 2 during the regular season — and then looked less than replacement level during Edmonton’s Stanley Cup Final run.

Even if we ignore the playoff mess, this contract still doesn’t look pretty. At 29, it probably won’t look better going forward either.

The biggest problem here is that Nurse was never a $9.25 million defenseman to begin with — that just happened to be the price tag for a lot of young defensem*n who were at the time. Nurse played a similar role, but his results weren’t anywhere close. Now the Oilers are paying for that.

At his best, Nurse is a capable top-pair option who can play tough minutes, but that isn’t enough to warrant such a hefty price tag. That makes it difficult to envision a path where Nurse starts living up to the money. Unless he somehow takes a massive leap at 30, this deal will continue to be an albatross on Edmonton’s books.

10. Tyler Seguin

Contract: $9.9M x three years
Model Value: $4.4M x three years

The Stars are almost at the finish line with Tyler Seguin’s deal and while he remains an effective top-six forward, a nearly $10 million cap hit is tough for him to live up to at this stage of his career. He projects to be worth less than half of that over the final three years.

Seguin had a solid bounce-back campaign last season playing with Matt duch*ene in a lesser role and looked great at five-on-five too. But his price tag is reserved for franchise-caliber players. That’s something he certainly was when he signed the deal, but injuries and a lesser role have limited his total upside.

He’s a great player to have around on the Stars and an important part of the team’s stacked top nine. But that cap hit is difficult to justify.

Honorable Mentions: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, John Gibson, Josh Anderson, Brendan Gallagher

(Top photo of Jonathan Huberdeau and Darnell Nurse: Gerry Thomas / NHLI via Getty Images)