Here’s a startling fact: over 815,000 Americans are currently battling end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and chronic kidney disease (CKD) affects a staggering 14% of U.S. adults. These numbers aren’t just statistics—they represent a growing crisis that’s been fueling the demand for dialysis and kidney transplants for decades. But here’s where it gets even more intriguing: could a class of drugs called GLP-1 agonists, like Ozempic, be a game-changer for this high-risk population? Let’s dive in.
CKD is a silent thief, gradually robbing the kidneys of their ability to function over time. When it reaches its final stage—ESRD—the kidneys can no longer sustain life without dialysis or a transplant. The 2024 United States Renal Data System (USRDS) report paints a grim picture: between 2017 and 2020, nearly 1 in 7 U.S. adults had CKD, and over 815,000 are living with ESRD. What’s worse? Comorbidities are rampant. In 2022, 59% of ESRD patients also had diabetes, 25% struggled with heart failure, and 20% had other cardiac issues. These overlapping health challenges make treatment even more complex.
But here’s where it gets controversial: Could GLP-1 receptor agonists, typically used for diabetes, significantly improve outcomes for CKD and ESRD patients? A groundbreaking 2024 clinical trial compared semaglutide (the active ingredient in Ozempic) to a placebo in people with type 2 diabetes and CKD. The results were eye-opening: patients on semaglutide experienced a slower decline in kidney function, as measured by the glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Even more impressive? Their risk of major cardiovascular events dropped by 18%, and the risk of death from these events plummeted by 20%.
In January 2025, the FDA approved Ozempic for reducing the risk of kidney failure, disease progression, and heart problems in diabetes patients with CKD. The European Medicines Agency (EMA) followed suit, allowing Ozempic to include kidney disease-related benefits on its label. While it’s not a cure, Ozempic can slow the march toward ESRD and slash the risk of life-threatening cardiovascular events.
And this is the part most people miss: Even though Ozempic doesn’t cure CKD, it effectively slows its progression. This means more patients will eventually reach stage 5 (ESRD), the point where dialysis or a transplant becomes a matter of survival. As a result, the demand for medical devices—from human leukocyte antigen (HLA) testing for organ matching to dialysis machines—could surge. But here’s the twist: if Ozempic is used before CKD develops, could it actually reduce the number of people who progress to ESRD? After all, one in three adults with diabetes (both type 1 and type 2) has CKD. By treating diabetes with Ozempic and achieving remission, we might prevent CKD from ever taking hold.
However, the future of dialysis care in the U.S. remains uncertain. Clinical trials are still exploring the full potential of GLP-1 agonists like Ozempic, and budget cuts to Medicare and Medicaid could limit access for CKD patients who would benefit most. Semaglutide and other GLP-1 agonists may delay CKD progression and reduce cardiovascular risks, but they don’t cure kidney disease. Clinicians will need to prepare for patients living longer with earlier-stage CKD, requiring proactive care coordination, early transplant planning, and aggressive management of comorbidities.
For the medical device industry, this could mean a boom in demand for dialysis equipment, HLA testing, and transplant-related services. Yet, if GLP-1 agonists become widely used for diabetes remission, new CKD cases might decline over time. This dual possibility—fewer new cases but more patients needing advanced care—creates a mixed outlook for both clinicians and device manufacturers. So, here’s the question: Will Ozempic and similar drugs revolutionize kidney care, or will access barriers and uncertain long-term effects keep their impact in check? Share your thoughts in the comments—this is a debate worth having.
